The hottest April steel price may fluctuate upward

The steel price in April may fluctuate upward

last week (March 26 - March 30), the domestic steel market price fluctuated downward. Zilijuan, general manager of Tianjin business department of Shanghai Securities, pointed out that from the production situation of steel plants, some steel-making enterprises increased the consumption of scrap steel due to the impact of blast furnace production restriction, making the output of crude steel increase instead of decrease. In addition to the above situation, the common sheet metal damage caused by scrap steel is also caused by the strong consumption in the process of transportation, pushing up the scrap steel price, which virtually increases the steelmaking cost of electric arc furnace. With the decline of steel price in March, some enterprises even suffer losses, and the output of electric arc furnace may be restrained, which is good for the market. In addition, the delay in the start-up of the blast furnace of the downstream steel plant caused by factors such as the haze weather in the north also gave the market a strong repair expectation. With the concentrated release of short selling sentiment accumulated in the early stage, the rapid decline of inventory and the improvement of supply and demand, the steel price may rise in April, but there are still many uncertain factors, the market rebound will not be smooth, and the overall probability of upward shock is high

the main basis for making the above judgments is:

first, the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) rebounded significantly in March. According to the China purchasing managers' index released by the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing, in March, China's manufacturing PMI was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points month on month. The above data show that the expansion of the manufacturing industry, which is directly related to the demand for steel, has accelerated, showing a steady upward trend, which has played a strong supporting role in the steel market

second, the demand for iron and steel circulation industry rebounded in March. In March, the total PMI index of iron and steel circulation industry was 53.2%, up 4.9% compared with February, and the prosperity of steel circulation market demand rebounded

third, the inventory began to decline significantly. According to the monitoring data, as of last Friday (March 30), the social inventory of steel in 29 key cities in China was 15.9711 million tons, a decrease of 765400 tons or 4.58% compared with the previous Friday; The social inventory of construction steel was 11.7251 million tons, a decrease of 652800 tons or 5.28% over the previous Friday; The social inventory of plates was 4.246 million tons, a decrease of 11.26% compared with the previous Friday. He evaluated the characteristics of the tested materials and oils by driving the reciprocating motion of the friction pair by electromechanical, a decrease of 2.59%

fourth, the average spot price of various steel varieties fell on a weekly and monthly basis last week. According to the monitoring data, as of last Friday (March 30), China's top 10 key cities ф The average price of 25mm grade III deformed steel bar was 3733 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton from the previous Friday and 501 yuan/ton from the same period last month; ф The average price of 6.5mm hpb300 high-speed wire was 4047 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton from the previous Friday and 418 yuan/ton from the same period last month; The average price of 5.5mm hot rolled coil is 3846 yuan/ton, and the steel wire for prestressed concrete gb/t 5223 ⑵ 002 is 45 yuan/ton lower than the previous Friday and 371 yuan/ton lower than the same period last month; The average price of 1.0mm cold rolled coil was 4541 yuan/ton, 76 yuan/ton lower than the previous Friday and 276 yuan/ton lower than the same period last month; The price of 20mm medium plate was 4120 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous Friday and 113 yuan/ton from the same period last month

in addition, the decline of the national steel comprehensive price index on a weekly basis last week and the continued decline of the imported iron ore market are also factors affecting the steel market