Is China ready for the third industrial revolution?
is China ready for the third industrial revolution?
China Construction machinery information
Guide: FDI continues to decline, and the retreat of international giants indicates the arrival of the third industrial revolution. The latest published data on the actual use of foreign capital (FDI) in July across the country, unexpectedly, continued to decline, and hit a new low in the past two years. In addition to the data, the most intuitive is the outflow of foreign capital from the real economy. And some international giants
fdi continued to decline, and the retreat of international giants heralded the arrival of the third industrial revolution.
the latest data on the actual use of foreign capital (FDI) in China in July, unexpectedly, continued to decline and hit a new low in the past two years. In addition to the data, the most intuitive is the outflow of foreign capital from the real economy. The "exodus" of some international giants will tell us more about the story behind itIt was learned on the 16th that Foxconn will invest US $10billion in Indonesia to take advantage of its low labor costs and huge market. Due to rising labor costs in China and continuous labor disputes, Foxconn has previously announced that it will diversify its production business to other Asian countries. Data show that the average monthly salary in Indonesia is only $113, less than half that in Thailand and only one third that in China
this is just the latest example
previously, Adidas, an international sporting goods giant, announced in July that it would close its last directly affiliated factory in China, a wholly-owned subsidiary located in Suzhou Industrial Park, by the end of this year
at the beginning of this year, American consumer goods giants Jiadun, caterpillar and other Fortune 500 enterprises withdrew some products from many contract factories in China to local production, and many "made in China" are gradually becoming "made in America"
should we get used to the normalization of the decline and withdrawal of foreign investment? Is the "third industrial revolution" proposed by the West alarmist? In the process of this great change, China's economy urgently needs to find its own position
the monthly amount of FDI hit a new low in the past two years
short term foreign investment will continue to decline
question: is China's competitive advantage still in existence
answer: on the whole, competitive advantage will exist for a long time
in July, the year-on-year growth rate of FDI continued to decline, and the monthly amount of FDI hit a new low in the past two years since July 2010. Data released by the Ministry of Commerce yesterday showed that in July, FDI amounted to US $7.58 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%
shendanyang, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, analyzed that the continuous decline of foreign investment was mainly affected by domestic and international factors. Internationally, world economic growth has slowed, uncertainty and instability have intensified, the European debt crisis has not been properly resolved, and the international financial market is relatively volatile. At the same time, the U.S. government advocates "revitalization of manufacturing industry" and introduces plans such as "choosing the United States" to encourage investment in the real economy; India, Brazil, Russia and other emerging economies have become new hotspots in the strategic layout of multinational companies, and many other factors have led to some new changes in the flow of global direct investment
Ma Yu, a senior expert at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said that although the medium and long-term trend should be taken into account for direct investment, changes in the short term often have accidental factors, which do not explain too many problems; However, due to the current worrying economic situation in China, the news of private capital withdrawing from the real economy has been heard from time to time. Multinational companies have also attracted a lot of attention by closing China's production bases or transferring orders. The continuous downward trend of foreign investment is still worthy of attention. In particular, considering this trend in the context of the third industrial revolution on a global scale has more practical and long-term significance
in Ma Yu's view, the first thing to consider is whether the decline in foreign direct investment now means a turning point for manufacturing in China, that is, the weakening or even loss of the competitive advantage of manufacturing? Will the trend of "withdrawal" of foreign investment from China be established? He believes that the answer should be No
in recent years, China's production costs have risen rapidly. The rise in labor costs has basically maintained an average annual growth rate of more than double digits, the cost of land and other resources has increased, and the cost of financial resources such as data has remained high, coupled with the continuous appreciation of the RMB and other factors, has indeed weakened the cost advantage of China's manufacturing industry. This is also a big reason for the plight of the domestic real economy. Under such circumstances, the transfer of some foreign-invested manufacturing projects or orders is normal and understandable
"but it's too alarmist to say that China's manufacturing advantage is no longer. From the perspective of comprehensive factors, China's competitive advantage will be long-term, and it can even be said that China is a permanent world manufacturing base!" Ma Yu said
his view is based on three elements: first, huge and high-quality labor resources. Although the demographic dividend is no longer tight, hundreds of millions of labor resources are unparalleled in the world. Moreover, although the overall quality of China's labor resources is inferior to that of developed countries, the hardworking and good at learning are inferior to that of most countries, and the absolute scale of high-end talents is not small; Second, it has a complete industrial chain and strong industrial foundation at the high, middle and low end. The production scale of more than 200 major industrial products ranks first in the world, and the manufacturing index is second only to the United States in the world; Third, the huge domestic market - not only the problem of local sales, but also provide better support for exports
Ju Jinwen, a researcher at the Institute of economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and vice president of the China Development Strategy Research Association, also believes that the decline in foreign investment will continue in the short term, but this does not mean that it will continue in the long term
"Because there are huge business opportunities in China's huge market. The reason why foreign capital has recently withdrawn from China, mainly original robots, 3D printing, smart factories, intelligent manufacturing and other topics have become a hot topic in today's manufacturing industry. The reason is that China's economy has also shown a downward trend recently, resulting in a decline in the profitability of almost all enterprises, including foreign capital. However, as China's economy stabilizes, foreign capital is bound to flow into China again. Therefore, I do not think that the recent withdrawal of foreign capital from China has become a new trend. " Drama Jinwen said
it is also understood that the Ministry of Commerce recently held a related Symposium. Many heads of multinational companies said that they regard further expanding investment in China as their development plans and goals. The survey of the American Chamber of Commerce in China also shows that 76% of the US funded enterprises surveyed expect their operating income in China to exceed that of 2011. The European Chamber of Commerce's business confidence survey also reached a similar conclusion
the world economy is now on the eve of change
great changes may occur in the global production pattern
question: is the third industrial revolution coming
answer: the precursor of change has appeared
while foreign capital began to withdraw, western countries put forward the concept of the third industrial revolution. In this regard, authoritative experts in China believe that no matter how academic circles debate the connotation and characteristics of the third industrial revolution, and whether the third industrial revolution has arrived, it is certain that the current world economy is on the eve of another major change
Ma Yu, a senior expert at the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that many precursors had appeared on the eve of the reform. "Although digital manufacturing and the application of new energy and new materials have not produced major technological breakthroughs that can change the global economic pattern and lead to global industrial restructuring in recent years, it seems to have reached a critical point, and such breakthroughs are imminent. Information shows that potential breakthroughs in new energy technologies may change the current global production pattern, and even overturn the long-standing geopolitical pattern. ”
and pingxinqiao, a professor at the school of economics of Peking University, clearly pointed out, "I'm sure the third industrial revolution exists."
"the third industrial revolution" is American scholar Jamie Loughkin has taught a course for high-end presidents at the Wharton School of business at the University of Pennsylvania for the past six years. With the publication of lavkin's lecture notes in the book "the third industrial revolution: how parallel power changes energy, economy and the world", the discussion on the new industrial revolution has become a hot topic for scholars, business elites and politicians in various countries
Ping Xinqiao believes that mankind has experienced two industrial revolutions so far. The first occurred in the 19th century, which was an industrial revolution with steam engine as energy, printing as information exchange intermediary, and coal-fired trains as infrastructure. The second industrial revolution took place in the 20th century. It is an industrial revolution with fuel as energy, electronic communication, radio and television as the intermediary of information exchange, and fuel vehicles as the infrastructure. It created the mass consumption culture
the third industrial revolution began in the last 20 years. Since the 1990s, renewable energy has been greatly developed, and Internet has become a new communication intermediary. The combination of renewable energy and Internet has provided a strong infrastructure for the third industrial revolution. In the future, people can connect to each other in their homes, offices and factories into an "energy Internet", just as we can share information on the "energy Internet" today
the serious financial and economic crisis experienced by Europe and the United States since 2008 is essentially a declaration that the achievements of the second industrial revolution have come to an end
Ping Xinqiao said, "why did the financial crisis last so long? Why did the unemployment rate stay so high for a long time? The profound reason is that the industrial foundation is changing: the old industrial foundation has collapsed, but the new industrial foundation has not yet passed."
he said, "the new industrial revolution is destroying the heritage of the second industrial revolution - the fuel automobile industry, the real estate industry based on carbonized raw materials, and the electronic toy industry based on Silicon Valley Electronic Technology..."
Ping Xinqiao believed that the new industrial revolution will destroy the jobs generated by the second industrial revolution and create millions of new jobs at the same time. However, the new industrial revolution will change the entrepreneurial market and the labor-intensive labor market, and usher in a new era of horizontal communication based on people's behavior and governance based on social networks. In this new era, workers may no longer concentrate on work, but will send labor instructions to someone from the information center in the way of door-to-door delivery
however, some experts do not agree with the concept of the third industrial revolution. Ju Jinwen, a researcher at the Institute of economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and vice president of the China Development Strategy Research Association, believes that if there is a third industrial revolution, in essence, the status of science and technology in industrial production will further rise. However, the possibility of a sudden global industrial revolution in the near future is not realistic
he believes that even if it is possible for western developed countries to make rapid scientific and technological progress in industrial production, it is inconceivable that most developing countries will reach or approach the scientific and technological level of developed countries at the first time. Traditional industries and technologies still have various reasons for their existence. Therefore, the advantages of China's manufacturing industry will still exist for a certain period of time. Of course, the scientific and technological content of Chinese industries will gradually increase, and emerging industries are also rising, but this does not exist. According to their sources, they are usually divided into mineral, vegetable fillers and industrial fillers